Race, poverty and unemployment as quantitative predictors of voter turnout in St. Louis amidst COVID-19 and a racial justice movement

PurposeThe 2020 election season brought with it a global public health pandemic and a reenergized racial justice movement. Given the social context of the intertwined pandemics of COVID-19 and racialized violence, do the traditional predictors of voter turnout – race, poverty rates and unemployment rates – remain significant?Design/methodology/approachUsing county-level, publicly available data from twelve Midwest states with similar demographic and cultural characteristics, voter turnout in St. Louis City and St. Louis County were predicted using race, poverty rates and unemployment rates.FindingsFindings demonstrate that despite high concentration of poverty rates and above average percentages of Black residents, voter turnout was significantly higher than predicted. Additionally, findings contradict previous studies that found higher unemployment rates resulted in higher voter participation rates.Originality/valueThis study suggests that the threat of COVID-19 and fear of an increase in police violence may have introduced physical risk as a new theoretical component to rational choice theory for the general election in 2020.

Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Indigenous Peoples in Latin America: Towards Effective Post-Pandemic Policies

[...]a broad and inclusive approach to post-pandemic policy-making—one that considers Indigenous forms of knowledge whilst fostering appreciation for their cultures and lives—is needed to adequately assist Indigenous peoples in repairing the harm they have suffered as a result of COVID-19.3 COVID-19 and its deadly impact on Indigenous communities There are no less than eight hundred distinct Indigenous communities across Latin America, each with its own unique identity, culture, and [End Page 169] history. In Bolivia, for example, where Indigenous groups comprise a significant portion of the electorate (between 41 and 62 percent of the population), Latin America's first Indigenous political executive was elected in 2006.4 In most instances, however, Indigenous peoples make up only a small proportion of Latin American country populations (generally ranging from 0.5–15 percent), one factor ensuring limited political influence and the widespread marginalization of their interests.5 As a consequence, Indigenous peoples across the region entered the pandemic whilst already suffering from a range of serious economic and socio-cultural inequalities.6 Inadequate access to medical care, chronic poverty and economic marginalization, racism and prejudice, and inadequate access to education are common issues that exacerbated the impact of the pandemic.7 The World Health Organization confirmed the arrival of the pandemic in the region on February 26, 2020. [...]Indigenous mortality rates were 4.03 percent in Brazil and 19.9 percent in Mexico—significantly higher than 2.2 percent and 5.7 percent overall mortality rates in each country respectively.9 Unfortunately, the lack of regional data on, and deliberate under-reporting of, Indigenous mortality rates across much of Latin America has problematized many of the available datasets.10 In Brazil, for example, organizations such as The Articulation of Indigenous Peoples (APIB), have shown that the total number of recognized Indigenous deaths (902 persons as of April 7, 2022), undercounts the actual figure by at least 31 percent.11 Other sources, such as the Special Secretariat for Indigenous Health (SESAI), which is responsible for Indigenous medical care, also provides incomplete data on Brazilian Indigenous mortality by failing to count Indigenous urban dwellers or those who live outside of recognized government-controlled territories in their data sets.12 Such groups are among some of the most vulnerable Indigenous communities in the country, receiving little, if any, support from government agencies charged with supporting Indigenous communities.13 As a result, the scale and scope of COVID-19's impact on Indigenous Brazilians is, and for the foreseeable future will likely remain, unknowable.14 Despite a lack of adequate data across much of Latin America, a growing body of evidence indicates that Indigenous peoples were particularly vulnerable to COVID-19, and that they likely died or suffered long-term health issues in disproportionate numbers.15 In a study of Indigenous peoples in Chile, for instance, regions with larger Indigenous populations recorded a noticeable increase in overall mortality.16 Where direct data do not exist, emerging studies suggest that the medical impact of COVID-19 was likely compounded by a range of structural inequalities and environmental factors.17 Many Indigenous peoples lack access to adequate medical care. [...]disproportionate exposure to pesticides—used extensively in agricultural industries in which many Indigenous people find employment, as well as exposure to smoke inhalation—caused by out-of-control forest fires across Latin America—likely exacerbated the repertory symptoms caused by COVID-19.18 As a consequence, Indigenous peoples had to face COVID-19 not only with fewer resources, but with greater exposure to the types of pre-existing conditions known to aggravate the impact of the disease.19 Particularly high mortality rates among Indigenous elders, who act as stores of traditional knowledge, affected cultural continuity and community cohesion.20 To better understand this we spoke with a representative of the Indigenous Kaingang people, Duko Vãgfy, who explained that "[t]he worst losses [we suffered] were the elders, because they held so much knowledge about [our] people.

Is Democracy Lost?

President Kais Saied's de facto dissolution of parliament in July 2021, abandonment of the constitution, and targeting of the opposition are clear signs that Tunisia is no longer a democracy and has returned to the authoritarian playbook of Arab leaders past and present. I see three main reasons for this abrupt end to Tunisia's decade-old democracy: 1) the failure to accompany political reform with socioeconomic gains for citizens;2) the subsequent rise of populism;and 3) the mistakes of the Islamic party. To move forward in Tunisia and the Arab world more broadly, prodemocratic forces must link freedom, development, and social justice.

Covid-19 and the 2020 presidential election

Whether deserved on not, US Presidents often receive the blame or the credit for the nature of the economy and direction of the country. Therefore, the status of the economy and the country in an election year can be a very important factor in election success for an incumbent President (or his party if an incumbent is not running). This is especially true in ‘battleground states' due to the presence of the Electoral College system where Presidential candidates need only win different combinations of states in order to become President. However, the 2020 Presidential election was vastly different from past election cycles in that an additional variable, COVID-19, was added to the decision calculus of voters. Eventually, the 2020 election came down to the extremely slim margins in three states (Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin) and thin margins in two others (Pennsylvania and Michigan). This paper shows that deaths from COVID-19 at the county level played a small role in demotivating voters to turnout in 2020 to cast their vote for Joe Biden as President. In other words, without Covid-19, President Trump's losses within these five states would have been even larger.

Crisis, Rhetoric and Right-Wing Populist Incumbency: An Analysis of Donald Trump's Tweets and Press Briefings

How do right-wing-populist incumbents navigate rhetorical strategic choices when they seek to manage external crises? Relevant literature has paid increasing attention to the role of ‘crisis' in boosting the electoral success of right-wing populist candidates. We know a lot less about the rhetorical strategies used by right-wing populist incumbents seeking re-election. We draw on literatures on populism, crisis management and political rhetoric to conceptualize the rhetorical strategic choices of right-wing populist incumbents in times of crisis. We propose a framework for the choice of rhetorical strategy available to right-wing populist incumbents and illustrate it with a qualitative content analysis of Trump's tweets and White House press briefings during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find limited rhetorical adaptation to crisis and high degrees of continuity with previous rhetoric grounded in right-wing populism. This challenges prevalent assumptions regarding the likelihood of incumbent rhetorical flexibility in the face of crisis.

Turnout in the time of corona: evidence from the legislative elections in Korea

This paper reports empirical evidence on the impact of the prevalence of COVID-19 on voter turnout, using the data from the legislative elections in Korea. To control for the time-invariant constituency-specific factors, I regress the first-difference in turnout, i.e. the change from the previous election, on the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases per resident. The results show a substantially negative impact. The share of old-age voters, who are known to face worse health risks of COVID-19 infection, amplifies this impact. These findings raise the question whether it is more democratic to hold elections as scheduled, as opposed to postponing them, during a pandemic.

THE US‑MEXICAN BORDER AND CONTEMPORARY AMERICAN IMMIGRATION POLICY

There have been several periods in American history that are referred to as turbulent times. They were characterized by a wide range of changes that happened to respond to issues that brought anxiety, threat, discontent, or trouble. Donald Trump's presidency and the Covid-19 pandemic significantly influenced American immigration policy and the lives of immigrants. The present article pays special attention to the Mexican-American border. This area plays a crucial role in migration studies focusing on the Americas for at least two reasons: international relations between Mexico (and the Latin American region) and the United States, and homeland security issues related to irregular and regular migrant flows. This study aims to determine what changes have been implemented in border policy, investigate why they occurred, and finally, discuss their results. The article analyzes the most challenging issues characteristic of the situation of unaccompanied minor migrants, the concept of Trump's wall or the 'remain in Mexico' program. The US-Mexican border studies have played a crucial role in research dedicated to American immigration policy since its inception. Today, it is also an area of concern and special attention is paid to this region due to the dynamics of processes taking place at the border. The work presented here discusses and highlights the most turbulent issues that echoed not only in the United States but also worldwide.

The Policy Blame Game: How Polarization Distorts Democratic Accountability across the Local, State, and Federal Level

Democratic accountability relies on voters to punish their representatives for policies they dislike. Yet, a separation-of-powers system can make it hard to know who is to blame, and partisan biases further distort voters' evaluations. During the COVID-19 pandemic, precautionary policies were put into place sometimes by governors, sometimes by mayors, and sometimes by no one at all, allowing us to identify when voters hold out-party versus in-party politicians responsible for policies. With a survey spanning 48 states, we test our theory that attitudes toward policies and parties intersect to determine when selective attribution takes place. We find that as individuals increasingly oppose a policy, they are more likely to blame whichever level of government is led by the out-party. This is most pronounced among partisans with strong in-party biases. We provide important insight into the mechanisms that drive selective attribution and the conditions under which democratic accountability is at risk.

COVID 19 fatalities burden in Asian countries: An analysis of pattern and determinants.

Covid 19 pandemic has severe implications on health and life of people. Asia being the most populous region has higher fatalities burden. Health infrastructure, stringent preventive measures by the government and public participation through adhering to social distancing have influence to check on fatalities' burden. The level of Social capital as well as voters' participation in a particular country can have influence on containment of COVID cases and fatalities. In this context, the main objectives of this study are to analyse pattern and trend of death burden for 45 Asian countries and impact of stringency measures by government, and voters' turnout ratio on death burden. However, for regression analysis only 32 countries are taken into account considering the availability of data for all variables. Multiple linear regression analysis is employed in a cross-sectional framework and Ordinary least square estimation technique with heteroscedastic adjusted standard errors have been used for estimation of coefficients. The results show that southern Asia contributes the highest share of fatality cases in total fatality cases of Asia with 71.43% share. It also has the highest share of confirmed cases in total confirmed cases of Asia with 71.72%. However, when we take the population into account, Western Asia leads in the share of confirmed COVID-19 cases and its associated fatality cases per million populations in Asia as compared to other Asian regions. The factors like health infrastructure and voters' turnover ratio are found to be significant and potential in reducing the new deaths per million populations. Though the coefficient of Stringency index has been negative and it did not emerge to be significant in Asian countries. The COVID related fatalities in Asian region are urban centric and urbanization proxy is found to be positive and significant. Diabetes prevalence rate has some heterogeneous result and in the present study its coefficient is not in the hypothesized direction. . The Countries should ramp up health infrastructure and necessary preparedness to deal with the subsequent waves and COVID related fatalities. Importance need to be given people's participation and their shared responsibilities in dealing with COVID cases and checking on fatalities. The realisation of social responsibility among the masses can lead to community participation and adhering to the protocols imposed by the government and helps in checking on spread of virus and associated death.

Comparing virtual political campaigns with traditional political campaigns: evidence from Kuwait during the COVID-19 pandemic

PurposeThis study aims to focus on how virtual campaigns are affecting voters in the elections of Kuwait, as well as whether such virtual campaigns will replace traditional campaigns in the post-COVID era. Design/methodology/approachThis qualitative research adopts a purposeful sample when selecting participants from candidates and the managers of electoral campaigns in Kuwait. Fifteen participants were selected, which has been sufficient to achieve data saturation, and then, textual data were collected via semistructured interviews from 15 candidates and the managers of electoral campaigns in Kuwait during the COVID-19 pandemic. FindingsThe findings indicate that candidates preferred using virtual campaigns which enabled them to reach voters during the time of COVID-19's lockdown. Majority of responses underlined that social media platforms do direct political messages to the voters. Hence, social media platforms should be perceived as preferred medium for communicating with supporters, especially in the post-COVID-19 era. However, some responses uphold the importance of keeping traditional political campaigns due to the peculiar nature of the Kuwaiti community where there is a need for socialization and meeting face-to-face with voters. Originality/valueThis research provides a new evaluation about the role of virtual political campaigns in Kuwait. It highlights the crucial and increasing role of virtual political campaigns in attracting voters;nevertheless, it found that virtual campaigns should be used as addendum to conventional political campaigns in the post-COVID-19 era in Kuwait.

Skeptical Communities: The Participatory Dynamics of Political Fandom

Depuis le début de la pandemie de COVID-19, nous avons observé la maniere dont les microcélébrités politiques de la sphere informationnelle québécoise font circuler et répondent â la désinformation afin de creer et de maintenir une communauté. Les possibilités offertes par les plateformes encourageant le développement et le maintien de relations multidirectionnelles qui compliquent les modeles uni directi önnel s ďinfluence ou de manipulation. Nous abordons ces processus épistémologiques a travers le prisme de la propagande participative (Wanless & Berk, 2017, 2019) et du fandom politique (Reinhard et al., 2021). En analysant le contenu et des commentaires de videos affichées sur YouTube par des influenceurs québécois contre le masque, la vaccination et les mesures sanitaires, nous étudions une construction identitaire en opposition aux sources officielles : les membres de la communauté sont des éveillés (éveillés â la vérité), par opposition aux endormis (ceux qui sont endormis ou manipules). Grâce â des analyses qualitatives, cette étude met en lumiére la maniere dont le travail des micro-influenceurs cree des opportunités pour la formation ďune identite communautaire basée sur un affect negatif et une posture épistémologique de scepticisme.

Character and Trust in Crisis Leadership: Probing the Relationships Among Character, Identification-Based Trust, and Perceptions of Effectiveness in Political Leadership During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic provided an opportunity to explore the relationships among character, identification-based trust, and perceptions of leadership effectiveness in the context of crisis leadership. Focusing on the leadership of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, we first explore whether Canadians of voting age believe character is important in political leadership during the pandemic. Second, we examine voter perceptions of the importance of the dimensions of character identified by Crossan et al. (2017) and to what extent voters perceive Trudeau demonstrates the behaviors associated with these dimensions. Third, we explore the role of identification-based trust in the relationship between character and perceptions of leadership effectiveness. Fourth, we study the relationships between character, trust, and effectiveness during dynamic conditions where the stakes for citizens with respect to health and social well-being are high. The results of our study connect character to trust and perceived effectiveness of a political leader during a crisis.

The Persistence of Ethnopopulist Support: The Case of Rodrigo Duterte's Philippines

The past few years have seen an emergence of populist leaders around the world, who have not only accrued but also maintained support despite rampant criticism, governance failures, and the ongoing COVID pandemic. The Philippines' Rodrigo Duterte is the best illustration of this trend, with approval ratings rarely dipping below 80 percent. What explains his high levels of robust public support? We argue that Duterte is an ethnopopulist who uses ethnic appeals in combination with insider vs. outsider rhetoric to garner and maintain public support. Moreover, we argue that ethnic affiliation is a main driver of support for Duterte, and more important than alternative factors such as age, education, gender, or urban vs. rural divides. We provide evidence of Duterte's marriage of ethnic and populist appeals, then evaluate whether ethnicity predicts support for Duterte, using 15 rounds of nationally representative public opinion data. Identifying with a non-Tagalog ethnicity (like Duterte) leads to an 8 percent increase in approval for Duterte, significantly larger than any other explanatory factor. Among Duterte supporters, a non-Tagalog ethnicity is associated with 19 percent increase in strong versus mild support. Ethnicity is the only positive and significant result, suggesting that it strongly explains why Duterte's support remains robust. Alternative explanations, such as social desirability bias and alternative policy considerations, do not explain our results.

Coronavirus Pandemic Response and Voter Choice: Evidence from Serbia and Croatia

Does the public perception of governments’ coronavirus pandemic responses actually make a difference to their electoral fortunes? In this research note, we answer that question by presenting the preliminary results of a survey of more than 3,000 voters in Croatia and Serbia conducted on a dedicated mobile app and web platform directly preceding parliamentary elections that took place in these two countries during the summer of 2020. This survey was part of our larger project tracking political competition, public discourse, and conspiracy theories in Southeast Europe during the coronavirus pandemic. The preliminary findings presented in this research note demonstrate Croatian and Serbian voters were rationally retrospective and rewarded parties in power based on evaluations of their crisis management performance. We also find evidence of voters who have personally witnessed the health consequences of the coronavirus being more likely to support the parties in power. We believe this is evidence of the coronavirus pandemic increasing affected citizens’ expectations of and trust in national governments where those governments respond strongly to the pandemic’s first wave, as was the case in both Croatia and Serbia.

Unconditional Support for Trump’s Resistance Prior to Election Day

Using survey data collected less than two weeks before the 2020 presidential election, we investigated why likely Trump voters would support Trump resisting the election results if he lost. We first used an experiment with randomized hypothetical popular-vote margins to test whether support for resistance was contingent on the results of the election. We also directly asked respondents who stated that they would support resistance to explain their reasoning in an open-ended response. In doing so, we gained insight into one of the most turbulent elections in American history and examined how support for resistance existed before the election due to both misinformation about voter fraud and hyperpartisanship that made Trump voters view the electoral process itself as illegitimate.

When polarised feelings towards parties spread to voters: The role of ideological distance and social sorting in Spain

Affective polarisation measured with feelings towards parties tends to overestimate the degree to which people dislike voters of opposing parties. This paper explores some of the factors that account for the gap between party affective polarisation (PAP) and voter affective polarisation (VAP). In particular, I first argue and show that the PAP-VAP gap increases with ideological distance between individuals and out-parties, although this difference begins to decrease after a certain level of ideological discrepancy is achieved. Second, social sorting increases the probability that individuals extend their antipathy towards parties to their voters, thus reducing the PAP-VAP gap. Third, whereas ideological distance leads to VAP among individuals with low levels of social sorting, it does not make a difference for socially sorted people. I discuss the relevance of these two factors by utilising the third wave of the E-DEM panel. The results have relevant implications for the consequences of affective polarisation. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Electoral Studies is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Electing the Mayors in Romania's Big Cities in 2020: Voter Turnout, Legislative Changes, and the COVID-19 Pandemic

Local elections have been theorized by many scholars as lower rank or second-order national elections: they are less important, less relevant, and just not as interesting as national elections. In Romania, turnout in local elections was, until the mid-2000s, quite high, even if lower than in parliamentary elections. Since 2008, however, turnout in local elections has been consistently higher than in parliamentary elections. The electoral reform that started in 2011 had, over time, a negative influence on the electoral process in the local elections. In this paper, we argue that the transition from the election of mayors using a majority electoral system in two rounds to a single round has contributed to the decline of citizens' interest in local elections, exerting a detrimental influence on the quality of political representation in general. Despite the arguments used by many of the supporters of this electoral reform, that electing the mayors in just one round will generate an increase in turnout because the competition will be fiercer, the effect was the opposite. The year 2020 marked a historic low in terms of turnout in local elections in Romania. Analyzing the official electoral data at county level and for each county capital, we will show that the health crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic had a minor influence on voting turnout. Instead, the specifics of the electoral law meant that, in the vast majority of county capitals, the turnout was significantly lower that the county average and the mayor was elected without reaching 50% of the votes (in many cases, the winning candidate failed to obtain more than 30% of the valid votes cast), which poses a major problem regarding the representativeness of elected mayors, as well as the stability and political balance within local political institutions.

Can Independents Save Democracy in an Era of Polarization?: Evidence from Korea

It is evident from the literature that political polarization has played a role in facilitating voter participation. While high participation in a representative democracy is beneficial, it becomes dangerous when this results from intense polarization. This is because polarization has a greater potential to undermine the principles of democratic pluralism. With data from the 21st Korean general assembly, I find that independent voters consider political issues to be important cues for participation even under extreme polarization. Short-term issues such as the government response to COVID-19 that have largely been the concern of independent voters, have had a significant effect on voter participation, and the evaluation of party nominations has also had an impact on turnout among independents. These findings show that Korean democracy has not been completely buried under the influence of polarization and that the political process of representative democracy in Korea is still operating normally thanks to the existence of independent voters.

Factors affecting relief aid policy of local governments – electoral competitiveness, fiscal capacity, and severity of crisis

We examined the effects of three factors on whether and how local governments provide relief aid to their citizens in the context of the COVID-19 crisis: the demand side (electoral competitiveness), the supply side (fiscal capacity) and the severity of the crisis (the number of confirmed cases). Our findings indicate that local governments with lower electoral competitiveness chose the targeting method over the universal method. Those with stronger fiscal capacity tended to provide relief aid using the targeting method. For those in areas with few confirmed cases, the universal method was favoured. While the results for individual relief aid were consistent with those for the entire sample, the results for business relief aid were not.

Civic Engagement for the Underserved—A Clinician Imperative

The Healthy People 2020 initiative under the Department of Health and Human Services reported an association between voter participation and better self-reported health.1 A supporting study concluded that though the mechanisms might be unknown, the fact is that the level of civic participation in a country is tightly tied to the overall health status of a country.2 National provider groups recognize the importance of civic engagement to their clinical practice and those they serve as well. The Association of Clinicians for the Underserved (ACU) recently began working together with VotER (www.Vot-ER.org) a national nonprofit that was founded by an emergency medicine physician, Alister Martin, who recognized both the need to encourage civic engagement and voter registration, and the particular role that providers can play in empowering patients to have a voice. While many organizations have been encouraging and supporting their staff, patients, and communities to vote for years (and many are required by law to offer voter registration in some circumstances), for some, the idea of registering voters in the current politically charged environment is worrisome.